Can Population Growth Rule Out Reincarnation? A Model of Circular Migration

Many have tried to draw scientific inferences about the existence or nonexistence of an afterlife from observations undertaken in the natural world. A leading example of these attempts is the common refutation of the hypothesis of reincarnation as being inconsistent with human population growth. This paper demonstrates that the demographic refutation of reincarnation only holds if supplemented by substantial metaphysical assumptions. A simple Markov model of circular migration can account for population growth and remain consistent with a reincarnation hypothesis. Though the chief attraction of the circular migration model is its simplicity, the model also has implications about how long people would have to remain discarnate. Because multiple conflicting theories about the existence and nonexistence of an afterlife are consistent with the currently available data, there can be no conclusion regarding which is correct. An incorrect assessment of the limits to what can verifiably be known about an afterlife has plagued our predecessors with schisms, wars, and intolerance. It need not plague our successors.